What if planning assistance

What is the challenge?

It's rare when planning the next quarter/s that you have any real data about the size of the work you are planning. You can get engineering to do detailed estimates but that's wasteful and usually wrong, you can use gut feel and while it's less wasteful in time it's still usually wrong. So trying to get a realistic feel for what might be viable is difficult.

What is the impact?

Time wasted, people feel let down as anchoring bias kicks in and whatever they see 1st they assume is correct,

Describe your idea

I would like to be able to set a "size" for a feature on my roadmap with a look up to show me the last x features that we finished of that size so that I can get a better feel that I am picking the right size. Then I would like to set a level of risk that I am comfortable with and the system set / recommend a duration for me.

For example:

• I selected Medium size

• I see a list of recent features

• I decided that this work is smaller than that

• I select Small

• I see another list and it feels about right

• I select the risk level that i am comfortable with

  • 50% of these features finished in this time or less

  • 70% of these features finished in this time or less

  • 85% ......

• I see a sugested duration of 28 days

• I make the feature that long on my roadmap.

It would be great to add a delivery risk associated with this too.

If you work in an organisation that breaks features down into requirements/stories then I would like the risk to flag if there are more requirements in my feature than would be "normal" for a feature of this size so that I can increase the size to better reflect reality.