Add automated capacity planning to sprints

What is the challenge?

People are notoriously bad at estimating, points or hours are equally bad, and often people feel pressured into lower estimates, making the problem worse.

What is the impact?

Accurate sprint planning is hard to do and repeatable sprints are the aim. failing a sprint can have negative connotations in many organisations so teams start to cook the books.

Describe your idea

I would like to use a statistical model that looks at team or individual performance and suggests a velocity with an associated level of risk.

for example:

The Speedsters team can complete:

• 15 stories with a 50% likelihood

• 10 stories with a 80% likelihood

or

• Betty you can complete 5 stories with a 50% likelihood

• Betty you can complete 3 stories with a 80% likelihood